I had a guy in my cab yesterday that worked in forensic accounting. For those of you who don’t know what that is (like me before I picked him up @ Grand Central) what these guys do is find the hidden income of wealthy individuals or corporations by examining their books and ID’ing the trouble signs. It’s kind of like body language experts who can tell a person is lying by the way their eyes look to the left when they’re talking. Forensic accountants are masters at the body language of accounting. This guy worked on Enron and he is now involved in determining who gets paid out in the Bernie Madoff sweepstakes. Fascinating conversation but based on the tip it’s safe to say he hasn’t kept too much of the hidden money for himself.

Luckily I won’t need it this week because after a playoff run in which I went 9-1 for all of you unappreciative assbags (hello talk radio host Mike Bower) I have done the forensic accounting of Super Bowl XLIV and found out where the money is being hidden. Literally hidden! And not just in this game but in every Super Bowl to come! I’m serious.

Anyone that has ever heard me talk about gambling on the radio, a little league game or a dance recital for that matter knows that I am a huge proponent of betting every game for the same amount of money. It is the single most important reason that I have come out ahead every football season since 1993. The reason I find this so important is because if you commit to bet every game equally it takes alot of the emotion out of the process and decreases the chances of you going on tilt after a tough loss and making a bunch of dumb bets. (Tilt the state of mind, not the Michael Madsen vehicle on ESPN)

Placing equal bets also accentuates a winning record by ensuring that you get paid. Sadly, to most people who bet football having a winning record rarely equates to making money. Think about it. How many times have you gone 5-2 in a weekend and lost money because you bet the five wins for a hundo and the two losses for a nickel and a dime. It’s maddening! You have to bet them all the same. People who bet in varying increments are a bookies dream!!! Even if it works for you on a small sample of games over the course of time “betting the big game” has a way turning your bank roll into the last shot of Steve Buscemi in Fargo. I cannot stress this enough. If you are seriously trying to gamble and come out ahead you must bet them all the same.

The Super Bowl is no different. If you’re gonna bet it every year you have to employ the same type of strategy. Mine, without further ado, is this. Bet the underdog in the Super Bowl to win the game outright every single year for the rest of my life. Tha’s right, forget the spread and bet The Saints +180 to win the game! A five hundred dollar bet will pay you nine hundred american bucks!

A lot of people will want to know why. Is it the limited mobility of Freeney, then the “remember me” hits of the Saints D? Maybe someone has finally found a way to confuse Peyton Manning by changing the name of the Stadium every other possession. Nope it’s bigger than all that. It’s not about pass rushers, or average starting field position it’s about FORENSIC ACCOUNTING.

I know at first it sounds highly implausible that their could be money hidden on the most heavily bet game in the universe but when you look at the money line in this game for a few minutes you wind up having a Robert Langdon moment where you decipher a hidden code.

Here is the deal: the team favored to win the Super Bowl has won the game 32 times in 43 tries (75%) so on the surface it would seem simple to bet the favorite on the money line every single year because you’re going to win 75% of the time. But if you look a little deeper you’ll see the trouble signs.

Although favorites win the Super Bowl (without the spread) 75% of the time they are usually doing so at a money line that is extremely high. (avg. price for the 43 favorites is around -500 which means for every hundred you win on a Super Bowl favorite, you lose five!! This year the Colts are laying -210 which means a hundred on the colts will cost you 210 if you lose. (It’s really not bad when you consider a hundred on the COLTS in Super Bowl III would have lost you $1600!!!!!) If you bet the Saints for a hundo it would pay you 180. If you lost it you’d only be out that same hundo and there in lays the value.

Since Super Bowl I betting the underdog on the money line for a five hundred a game would give you a won lost record of 11 wins and 32 losses but you’d be up eleven thousand five hundred dollars. Don’t get me wrong there’d be a ton of games you didn’t like (‘94 Chargers over the Niners comes to mind) but if you stuck it out with this strategy you are bound to get paid. Just don’t count on winning the bet every year (or every three years for that matter). The dog wins the game outright slightly better than once every 4 years. I know this sounds boring and reserved but if you want to make money that’s exactly what you need to be.

Often times the guy you hear celebrating at the Borgata on Saturday night because he’s winning five dime black jack hands is often the same guy you see Sunday morning betting 20 bucks a hand because the excitement made it impossible to walk away and now it’s all gone. It truly is the worst gambling feeling in the world. I’m sure some of you have been there, tipping the waitress a hundred a round, paying people to hit their 16 because you plan on doubling down, lost behind stacks of chips that look like the New York City Skyline. But rather than walking away you keep playing and now you have the Philadelphia Skyline which eventually becomes the Columbus Ohio skyline and then alas, Sioux City. Keep the emotion out of the process and place the boring bet. Believe me I KNOW how boring this sounds but it’s not nearly as boring as Sioux City.

….As far as betting the game on an individual basis I think the Colts are going to destroy them for some reason. The only thing scaring me is that everybody I talk to feels the same way. If I was going one game I would lay the 210 and bet the Colts simply to win the game. Unfortunately or fortunately I have pretty good discipline so I will stick to the money line strategy that I’ve employed since the year 2000. (3-7, up $2500).

If you really plan on betting the Super Bowl every year I have a strategy that cannot lose over the course of time.

Why you ask? Is it because of the limited mobility of Dwight Freeney or the turnover inducing the “remember me” hits of their defense? Is Reggie Wayne’s knee really that bad? Has the ever changing name of the Dolphins Stadium confused Peyton Manning?

Jimmy Failla can be reached at JIMFAILLA@yahoo.com or the Ann Service Taxi Dispatch on w’ 21st street because he’s making something of his life. Honest.

Jimmy Failla is a guest contributor “Wheelhouse Radio” program that airs every Sunday – Thursday @ 8pm ET/5pm PT at www.blogtalkradio.com/thewheelhouse and at www.errorfm.com @ 2am ET/11pm PT

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There are only a few hours left until one of the biggest sporting events of the year: Super Bowl XLIV. It is also one of the biggest sports betting days of the year, and the Super Bowl line is set with the Colts favored by around 5 points.

After picking a winner, take some time and pick your most valuable player. Since the Super Bowl odds favor Indianapolis, the MVP will likely come from the Colts.

There is no need to be cunning; Peyton Manning is and should be the favorite to be the MVP. Not that we need to list the reasons, but he is the best quarterback in the league, and he is at the top of his game. He can manage, lead, and find any way to win. The Colts quarterback is known around the league as the most prepared player each and every Sunday, and with two weeks to focus on the biggest game of the year, Manning will be ready.

Manning means a great deal to not only the current league, but to its history as well. Even if one of his receivers has a strong game, it is still likely the voters will opt for Manning simply because of his work ethic and leadership. He is one of the few players that makes everyone better around him.

However, if we want to try to be clever, there may be few x factors who can benefit from Manning and earn the MVP as a result in an upset. Wide receiver Pierre Garcon was the best receiver on the field in the AFC Championship game against the Jets with his big performance. Manning spreads the ball around and will throw to who ever is open. The New Orleans Saints, like the Jets, simply do not have enough defensive backs to cover all the Colts weapons.

And now for a deep MVP sleeper. Should the Colts prevail, it will of course be under the leadership and game management of Peyton Manning. His play calling is superior, and when the Saints are ready for a passing play, he will not hesitate to turn to the run and Joseph Addai. The overlooked Colts running back has had a fine year and has a shot to break out this coming Sunday. Firstly, the Saints to do not have a good running defense which favors Addai. Secondly, with all eyes on Manning and his wide outs, there should be more lanes for the Colts backs to operate. Thirdly, should the Colts get up big, they can and will run the clock and run the ball.

The MVP picks, over/under, and other prop bets make for a very exciting day. There are betting services available to help manage all the selections and possibilities. Manning is the way to go for the MVP, but if you want a big more risk and reward, check out Garcon and Addai for the Colts as well. And if you’re convinced of a Saints upset, look to Pierre Thomas to lead the way on the ground.

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For one week of the year, sports fans that live and die every week with the NFL come together with those that haven’t watched a snap of football since last year. Whether you are watching due to Super Bowl betting, bonding with your significant other, looking for a good party, or actually care about the game, chances are good you will be watching Super Bowl XLIV. For fans of the game like myself, I couldn’t be anymore excited about the possibilities of this year’s matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints.

It has taken years to get a matchup this good on paper in the Super Bowl. Not since Super Bowl XXXII can I remember a game promising this much hype, this much intrigue, and this much offense. Like Super Bowl XXXII, the headliners in this game will be the quarterbacks. Can Peyton Manning and Drew Brees live up to the drama provided by Brett Favre and John Elway twelve years ago? Not only do I think they can, but I think this has the potential to be the most exciting Super Bowl of this generation.

The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints combined to score almost 1,000 total points this season. The Saints led the NFL with 64 overall touchdowns during the regular season. The Colts weren’t far behind them, finishing fourth in overall touchdowns with 53. While eight of the Saints touchdowns came from the defense, 51 of the Colts touchdowns came on offense. This one promises to be an offensive show for the ages.

The Indianapolis Colts come into the game as the favorite. Vegas odds have them somewhere between a -4 to a -6 favorite. That is a very interesting number if you think about it. On paper, the Colts should be an easy seven point favorite against anyone in the Super Bowl. The Colts have blown out teams in both playoff games. But guess what, so have the Saints and these guys are the real deal.

Interestingly enough, this game may be more about defense than offense. This year’s Super Bowl storyline features Colts DE Dwight Freeney. The Pro Bowl DE has ligament damage to his ankle and is officially listed as questionable for the game. Other than Peyton Manning, Freeney may be the second most important player to the Colts in a game like this. Sure, you can confuse Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco with schemes and play the turnover game. However, Drew Brees is not going to turn the ball over without any pressure. Without pressure, Brees will pick the Colts apart for four quarters and slice and dice his way to a championship. Raheem Brock will step in for Freeney if he can’t play and while my fellow Temple alumni is no slouch, he doesn’t possess the speed that Freeney has.

Speaking of defense, the New Orleans Saints come into the game with the 25th ranked defense during the NFL regular season. The Saints have definitely stepped it up in the playoffs. The Saints not only contained arguably the two best quarterbacks in the NFC, they hurt them. Has anyone seen the pictures of Brett Favre’s ankle and arm this week? Forget about looking at the sack number, the Saints got to both Warner and Favre several times throughout the game. It got so bad two weeks ago that even I was wincing in pain watching Brett Favre get up from those massive hits. This is the kind of game that could get ugly real fast for Peyton Manning if he isn’t careful.

The advantage for Manning in my opinion is that he played against two very similar defenses in the playoffs. Manning played arguably the two best defenses in the AFC in back-to-back weeks and shredded them. While the Jets did get to Manning early in the AFC championship game, Manning figured them out, and tore them apart as the game progressed. Manning also seemed to be two steps ahead of the Ravens in the divisional round, who are also a blitzing team. The Colts boast one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. It would shock me quite honestly to see Manning hit anywhere near as much as Warner and Favre were hit by the Saints.

On offense, it is really tough to give anyone an edge here. It is quite eerie as to how similar both of these offenses are. While both teams have their number one targets in Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston respectively, they spread the ball around so much that fantasy owners of any Colts or Saints are probably bruised from beating their heads in throughout the season in frustration. At tight end you have two of the best tight ends in the NFL opposing each other. Where the Saints have a bit of an advantage is with the second tight end. Brees seemed just as comfortable throwing to David Thomas this season as he did Jeremy Shockey. Manning doesn’t have that luxury. However, teams that double Dallas Clark or Wayne usually get bit by Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie. Just ask the Jets how that worked out for them in the title game.

The Colts and Saints also have very similar running games. Both teams go with somewhat of a three-headed monster. While Joseph Addai and Pierre Thomas are technically the starters, Donald Brown and Reggie Bush get plenty of opportunities, with Mike Hart and Mike Bell carrying the ball on short-yardage and red zone plays. Joseph Addai has been hit or miss in the postseason averaging five yards per carry last week, but with no touchdowns in the playoffs. Reggie Bush on the other hand has come alive for the Saints in the postseason with touchdowns in both games. On top of that, Reggie Bush averaged 16.8 yards on the ground against the Arizona Cardinals and 16.5 in the air last game against the Minnesota Vikings. You just have no idea where this guy is coming from!

The quarterbacks have lived up to their billing for most of the season. Peyton Manning has undoubtedly been more consistent over the entire season than Drew Brees has. As long as Manning is taking the snap, the Colts have never been out of a game. Manning and Brees each had tremendous QB ratings in the conference title games. Manning has thrown five touchdowns, while Brees has thrown six. Both quarterbacks have turned the ball over, once a piece on interceptions. The Saints had a better mix on the ground as Drew Brees threw for 444 yards in two weeks as opposed to Peyton Manning who threw for over six hundred yards.

So how does such a great game on paper end on Super Bowl Sunday? I would love to see the Saints win on Sunday. It would be a nice change of pace rather than seeing Peyton Manning’s face everywhere for another offseason. As someone that has watched NFL football for now four decades, the turnaround that Sean Payton has done with the Saints may be the best turnaround I have ever seen in years. It was only a few years ago that Saints fans had to sit through those horrendous Aaron Brooks and Bobby Hebert seasons.

At the end of the day I just don’t see Peyton Manning losing this game. It doesn’t matter if they are down three or thirty-three going into the fourth quarter. Until I see different, nobody is beating Peyton Manning this year. I just think the Colts have too many weapons on offense that at some point or another will break the will of the Saints defense. I don’t like it, but I predict another Indianapolis Colts Super Bowl win and countless hours of Peyton Manning on television cutting meat for the next six months.

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Finally, an entire weekend of games in the NFL postseason lived up to expectations. For at least three quarters, the AFC championship game turned out to be one of the most exciting games in NFL conference championship history. Not even four quarters could decide the NFC Super Bowl representative. For the first time in sixteen years, two number NFL one seeds will play in each other in what will likely be the most hyped game in Super Bowl history.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts - As stated above, for three quarters this was an NFL classic. Rex Ryan and the Jets didn’t come to Indianapolis satisfied with exceeding expectations and playing in the title game. The Jets came out firing on both sides of the ball. Manning was sacked on the third down of his first possession and you knew from there, this was going to be a long afternoon. All of the talk about the Jets rattling Manning proved to be correct.

To my surprise, the Jets broke this game wide open with a phenomenal call in the second quarter. Mark Sanchez hit Braylon Edwards with a beautiful 80-yard pass for a score. This was the first touchdown of the game and pulled the Jets in front 7-3. The Colts looked stunned, the crowd got quiet, and the Jets looked more confident than the home team that bucked history and had the opportunity to go for an undefeated season.

Going into halftime I was almost sure that the Jets were winning this thing. The Jets were having some serious problems accounting for Collie and Garcon, but they had kept Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark in check. I didn’t think Jim Caldwell would be able to make the proper adjustments necessary to take the game back. The Jets also had the ball coming out of halftime. Everything just seemed to be going the way of gang green.

The one thing that had to worry Jets fans coming out of halftime was the running game. After bowling over teams for weeks, the Colts did a damn good job of keeping the run game in check. I was also surprised that Shonn Greene seemed to be getting most of the carries. To me, I just think that Thomas Jones gives you that extra on every play where he is going to break tackles at some point and break a run one wide open faster than Greene. Unfortunately Jets fans saw the tide start to turn when Greene left the game with an injury.

Now on paper you wouldn’t have thought Greene leaving was that big of a deal because you have Jones. But Jones works in a split situation because of the change-of-pace style he brings paired with Leon Washington or Greene. A situation that features Jones with no other options is a tricky one. I sent a text to my brother when Greene went out and I said that this one is over. Missing that second back completely changes the game for the New York Jets and makes things a lot easier for the Colts defense.

Manning showed me a lot on Sunday. I think sometimes he gets a lot of criticism because he just makes it look too easy. It took him a half, but he picked up on the Jets schemes and found ways to get Clark and Wayne open. Once Wayne and Clark started getting open, the will of the Jets was broken, and Manning was in cruise control.

Last week I wrote about the underrated Indianapolis Colts defense coming into the game. For some reason, the Colts are still labeled a bad rushing defense because of a few bad seasons a couple of years back. It’s just not true. In back to back weeks, the Colts plugged up arguably the two best rushing teams in the NFL. I think this Colts defense is underrated and are a big reason that this team is going to the Super Bowl.

I don’t think the New York Jets are a case of a team that overachieved and got hot. I think they have a very good coach who can do this again. Think about this. This isn’t even entirely Rex Ryan’s team. Give Rex Ryan a few years where we can get his type of players and this team will be ready for the Super Bowl. So long Kerry Rhodes. Ryan is no fluke. Ryan has been a defensive mastermind for years as a coordinator. I think that there has been an official changing of the guard in the AFC East this year. I don’t see any reason that this team can’t win the East next season and contend once again.

The Jets will be playing with fire if they roll with Thomas Jones next season. He is only getting older. Should the Jets come back with a three-headed attack of Jones, Washington, and Greene, they could be the most dangerous team in the AFC next season. Mark Sanchez will likely have a bit of a sophomore slump so I wouldn’t expect big things next season. However, he only seemed to get more comfortable with Dustin Keller as the season moved on. I think he is the real deal and Jets fans can be comfortable for the first time in decades that they have a franchise quarterback for years to come.

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints - Rarely does a game with this much hype live up to expectations. On paper, this reminded me of those old 49er-Cowboy NFC title games of the early 1990s which always wound up more competitive than the Super Bowl. Both teams opened up the game with scoring drives and reassured fans that this game was going to live up to all of the hype and then some.

I have to start off here with something that didn’t have anything to do with the game itself. Right before the game kicked off on the sidelines, Chris Myers grabbed Vikings coach Brad Childress for some comments. Chris asks him flat out what his run-pass ratio will be for the game. Of course Childress looks at him like, “Are you serious?” and gives up a very non-committal answer. But what kind of lazy journalism is this? Is that any different than a question any NFL fan would ask Brad Childress before a game? Give me a break! There are plenty of ways to ask the same question, yet in a more creative fashion. What is the point of having this sideline charade if all the interviewer is going to do is ask a lazy question? I’ve seen better sideline reporting during an Arena Football game.

The Saints game plan here was to hit Brett Favre and to hit him often. I have no problem with that, because that is what the game is all about. However, the game plan here included taking lots of cheap and dirty shots at old #4. Favre hit the ground often, and most of those hits were late and dirty. I am no Favre apologist by any means, but even I thought some of these hits were getting a bit ridiculous.

The bottom line here is it worked for the Saints. No other team this season was able to get to Favre as often as the Saints got to him. Favre not only went down often, he often went down hard. The pain on Favre’s face as he would get up from every hit was just excruciating. At one point Favre had to go to the bench for medical treatment. This was a defensive performance that you would have expected in the early game. As much as Favre can annoy me at times, I will say this about the gunslinger. He is one tough guy. Nobody can ever question his toughness after watching what he went through at 40-years old and finishing the game.

The story of the game here was turnovers. The Vikings offense turned the ball over six times, with Adrian Peterson stealing that show. The Saints got a bit off of the hook here, because they also turned the ball over several times. Adrian Peterson is taking a ton of heat today for his numerous fumbles. While he does need to own up to his own mistakes, the Saints defense deserves a ton of credit here also. The Saints were constantly going for the ball. I don’t know if this was all about Peterson’s carless play or more about the Saints creating their own turnovers. I tend to credit the defenses on both sides for creating the turnovers rather than putting all of the blame on the players when it comes to most of the turnovers. Not all of them, but I’ll get to that.

The irony here is that even with all of the Vikings turnovers, Peterson’s fumbles, and Favre’s hits, that the Vikings were not only always in the game, but were two minutes away from winning it. It was the storybook moment that football writers dream of. Brett Favre got the ball with two minutes to go, tied at 28, on the road, with the Super Bowl on the line. Favre marched the Vikings down the field and had the team at the 33-yard line of the Saints with 0:19 seconds to go. The Vikings were a field goal away from breaking the tie and doing the unthinkable until the thinkable. A 12-man on the field penalty sends the team back five yards and Favre is forced to move the team back into field goal range. Welcome back Brett Favre!

The old Brett Favre made a special guest appearance here. Favre threw an interception to the Saints, turning the ball over, and taking away the Vikings Super Bowl hopes with one play. This wasn’t a brilliant play by the Saints. This was a horrendous throw and terrible decision by a veteran quarterback who should have known better.

The turnover gave the Saints the ball with less than 10 seconds to go, yet they didn’t do anything with it. The game went into overtime. Now here we go again with the NFL overtime debate. Anytime an NFL game goes into overtime, fans and media start screaming about how unfair it is that the other team doesn’t get a chance with the ball. I hate that argument. Using that argument, it is like saying that defense doesn’t count for anything. The defense has just as much of an opportunity to make something happen as the opposing offense. The Saints won the toss and received the ball.

The Saints wound up scoring on the opening overtime drive. The Saints used 11 plays to move the ball down the field and set things up for a field goal. Garrett Hartley made a 40-yard field goal to win the game and send the Saints to the Super Bowl. Before you anti-overtime critics start screaming about it being unfair that the Vikings didn’t get a chance, keep in mind that the Vikings had 11 chances to stop the Saints. Not too mention, most overtimes don’t end on the first possession. This was only the fifth time out of twenty-seven NFL playoff overtimes that a team scored on its opening possession.

Funny how after five intense quarters of championship football, the quarterback who threw one of the most ridiculous interceptions in postseason history is stealing all of the headlines today. While the most anticipated Super Bowl of our generation is getting its share of headlines, most of the headlines revolve around Brett Favre and his future in the NFL. I will save my opinions on what Favre should and will do for later in the week. But it got so ridiculous that Fox had more shots of Favre leaving the field after the game than the quarterback that just drove his team 11 plays down the field in overtime to win the game and go to the Super Bowl. Heck, I thought at one point that Fox was going to ask Favre to accept the Halas Trophy for the Saints!

Finally after years of disappointment, NFL fans will get the Super Bowl Dream Match that we always hope for when a season starts. I’ll give the NFL a lot of credit, because most of the Super Bowls over the last decade were competitive thrillers. But none ever featured a matchup of the two “sexy” team of the season. This will be the first time in sixteen years that two number one seeds will play each other for in the Super Bowl. Enjoy it, because it may be another sixteen before we see anything like this again.

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Finally, after months of NFL action we are down to the nitty gritty of the National Football League. This Sunday the NFL will present its version of the Final Four, as four teams will compete for the honor of moving on to the Super Bowl. On paper it looks as if this year’s NFL Conference Championships will live up to the hype, drama, and competition expected with January play.

Starting off in the AFC, the New York Jets will look to do what the Jets haven’t done in over four decades and that is play in the Super Bowl. Rex Ryan brings the same bravado to the Jets that his dad brought to the 1985 championship Chicago Bears. Mark Sanchez will bring the hopes and dreams of many hard working New York Jets fans to Indianapolis as he and gang green look to continue their miracle season against the Indianapolis Colts.

To most Indianapolis Colts fans, this is just a formality. By mid-season when the Colts were 8-0 and rolling, fans started talking Super Bowl. The Colts have been a remarkable team this season. No expert in the world expected the Colts to continue without missing a beat after the retirement of their coach Tony Dungy. Let’s not kid ourselves here. It is Peyton Manning running this show with Jim Caldwell in the co-pilot chair. On paper this looks like the biggest mismatch in conference championship history. So did the AFC divisional title game in San Diego last week and look at how that turned out.

Of all of the potential AFC title matches, I truly believe that you couldn’t get a better storyline than what you get out of a Jets-Colts match. Think of the irony here! The Colts played the Jets in their 15th game of the NFL season. The Colts clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs by this point. Instead of continuing their undefeated streak and going for a complete NFL undefeated season, the Colts sat their starters in the second half. The Colts immediately gave up a lead and their chance in NFL history. A loss would have eliminated the Jets from NFL postseason play. The Jets wound up winning the game. How ironic that all Caldwell had to do was leave his starters in, and the Colts would likely be playing someone else? I don’t think you could ask for better drama than this.

What can you say about the Jets that hasn’t already been said? Like the New York Giants of 2007, this is a team that got red hot at the right time. Thomas Jones is arguably the best 31-year old running back I have ever seen. The Jets started out the season red hot at 3-0. A mid season collapse had some people ready to call the rookie QB a bust. The Jets did what they had to do to get into the playoffs. Two amazing back-to-back wins over the Cincinnati Bengals  should have been enough to convince Jets doubters. A win in San Diego over arguably the hottest team in the NFL has convinced me that this team is for real.

The game plan is real simple for the Jets. They need to wither the storm early. Peyton Manning is going to come out firing. If there is any lesson to be learned by watching the Jets, it is that you can’t let up on this team for a second. If the Jets can come out early and withstand the initial offensive onslaught by Manning and the crew, they have a great chance of winning this game. Rex Ryan coached several Baltimore Ravens defenses that had great days against Manning, so he knows how to play him. Even in the first game this season, he did a decent job of containing Manning. As great as Manning is, he is in now way a given in the playoffs. He is going to have a heck of a job to do on Sunday.

The New York Jets on offense need to keep doing exactly what they have been doing and that is run. They may not break big runs early on, but by the time the third and fourth quarters come around, they will have broken down the Colts defense, and they will get their holes. The problem is, if Manning gets up early, the Jets won’t be able to run so they need to make sure that doesn’t happen. With all due respect to Mark Sanchez, if the Jets need him to win the game, it won’t happen. I think the Colts running defense is better than most people give them credit for. At the same time, I think the Jets should definitely take some play action shots early on to keep the defense honest. I don’t think anyone is expecting the Jets to come out throwing. A few completed deep throws early on by Sanchez could make this a very different game.

I have picked against the Jets for the last four weeks and I am done. I really love the Jets here. I think there is something mentally about this game that gives the Jets a huge edge. I am not a superstitious guy, but I do believe there is something here about the Colts throwing away history and being bit by the Jets weeks later. The Colts know this and if they are down early, I think they will have more pressure on them than the Jets would. I love the Jets in an upset and I look for Rex and the boys to be playing again in two weeks.

The NFC title game has the makings of an all-time classic this weekend. The Minnesota Vikings travel to New Orleans  to play the New Orleans Saints with the winner moving on to the big dance. This game reminds me a lot of the old 49er-Cowboys games in the early-mid 1990s where the NFC title games had more interest than the Super Bowls. The NFL couldn’t have asked for two better teams and more stars than the competition coming out of the NFC.

Both teams looked incredibly impressive last week in their home wins. For the Saints, they had contributions from an unlikely player in Reggie Bush. For the Vikings, Brett Favre looked like he just got done taking a bath in the fountain of youth. Both teams had convincing wins with very little competition from their opponents. Other than a few scares, the Vikings and Saints simply brushed off the Cowboys and Cardinals in games that looked more suited for Madden 10.

I think there were more questions surrounding the New Orleans Saints last week than any other team. The Saints rolled for 13 games, winning some by the hairs on their chin, but going 13-0 nonetheless. Unlike the Jets who got hot as the season closed, the Saints wound up losing their last three and looked like anything llike a team ready for prime time play. Things didn’t look much better when the Cardinals broke off a long touchdown run on the first play of the game. That was child’s play for the Saints who wound up returning a score and never looking back. The coming out party of Reggie Bush is something that has to make Saints fans delighted, while giving Vikings fans yet another weapon on the team to worry about.

The Vikings looked equally good in their game last week against the Dallas Cowboys. While a few Dallas missed field goals killed the Cowboys, I don’t know how different the game would have played out even if they made them. The pressure from the front four of the Vikings was just awesome. Adrian Peterson didn’t do much in the numbers, but was more valuable than people have given him credit for. The threat of a long Peterson run, opened up the passing game for Favre, who made them pay every time with passes all day long to Sidney Rice.

I get the feeling that  this won’t be the shootout people are hoping for in the early stages of the game. Let’s face it. The way to beat the Saints is to grind out the football on long drives and keep Drew Brees off of the field. The way to beat the Vikings is to grind out the ball with long rushing drives and keep Favre and Peterson off of the field. I envision both teams coming into this game with run-heavy game plans early on. Who blinks first is the real question. I lean a bit on the Favre end with this one. Brett Favre’s propensity to audible has now turned into a national headline. I could easily see Favre taking some shots down the field if he sees an opening or the Vikings running game can’t get anything going.

I love how the “experts” say the way to beat Drew Brees is to put pressure on him. I think that is ridiculous. I watched teams rush Drew Brees all season and I watched him make most of them pay. Now the Cowboys had success due to the pressure, but I can’t create a game plan on the success that one team had with the pass rush. I do think Jared Allen will get to Brees, however if Brees gets rid of the ball short or long, someone like Jeremy Shockey or Reggie Bush can turn a short dump pass into a score without missing a beat. The Vikings are definitely going to have to take their shots on Brees, but it can’t be an all blitz day or the Vikings will get burnt hard.

I think it is fair to say that the Vikings go as Brett Favre goes. There have been games like the Chicago Bears game where a rusty start cost them the game. At the same time, his second half play in that game was brilliant and would have won them the game if not for the slow start. The Vikings are a rather young team on offense. I do wonder how guys like Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin will react early on in such a big situation. Even Adrian Peterson with all of the pressure he must be feeling between last week’s poor performance and the fumbles all season may or may not be 100% there for the game. I think this is a very big x-factor that hasn’t really been talked about for the Minnesota Vikings.

In the end I lean slightly towards a Vikings win. I just think the Vikings defense will be too much for the Saints to handle for four quarters. I do think Brees will get frustrated and press at times and turn the ball over at least once. Brad Childress coached in a lot of these games as a coordinator with the Philadelphia Eagles, so he has been here before. There is just something special about this Vikings team that leads me to believe that they will be the better team on Sunday. I think these are two teams that if they played ten times, you’d have a five-five split. This weekend, I am leaning towards the old man and All Day to make Vikings fans proud and represent them in Miami.

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We are two rounds and eight games down in the NFL playoffs. Once again the NFL saved a weekend of lackluster games with a fantastic Sunday finale. Who would have thought that the San Diego Chargers and the New York Jets would provide the most intrigue on a weekend that featured the New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, and Indianapolis Colts?

Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints - As an NFL fan, this game was a bit of a disappointment. Like many, I was fooled last week into believing that the Cardinals may be a team of destiny. After shredding arguably the best defense in the NFC, the Cardinals marched into New Orleans and were less competitive with the Saints than either the Detroit Lions or the Washington Redskins during the regular season.

The headline of this game was the coming out party for Reggie Bush. After a disappointing NFL career, Reggie Bush finally did what anyone that watched him at USC expected him to do in the NFL. Bush was a game-changer this weekend and became the nuclear weapon on a team full of weapons. Bush made life a lot easier for the Saints by returning an 83-yard punt for a touchdown as the Cardinals just watched him flash by them en route to the end zone.

Many skeptics were concerned about the way the Saints finished the season. After winning 13 games in a row, the Saints were losers of their last three. Taking a page out of the New England Patriots book, the Saints couldn’t have opened the game any worse. Tim Hightower broke off a 70-yard touchdown run on the Cardinals first offensive play. Unlike the Patriots, the Saints were able to rebound and counter the touchdown with 21 points of their own in the first quarter.

The game just kept getting uglier for the Cardinals. Kurt Warner was nailed and was taken out for a few series. Cardinals’ defensive players Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Antrel Rolle each left the game due to injuries. The Cardinals were inept on both sides of the ball. It was pure and total domination by the New Orleans Saints.

Drew Brees said something interesting after the game. When asked about coming into the game with three losses, he said it was part of their plan that nobody would understand who didn’t play on the team. That was a very interesting statement to me, which has been surprisingly ignored by most of the media. If that was truly the plan, that may be one of the biggest high risk-high reward plans in NFL history. Regardless, the Saints will host the Vikings next week and look better than ever returning to the NFC title game for the first time in several years.

Ironically most of the talk following this game centered on Kurt Warner. Warner will play the role of Brett Favre this season as the quarterback who may or may not retire. Warner has said that it will be a fast decision. Warner has one year left on his contract. I think this guy is the ultimate competitor. Remember, unlike a lot of NFL star quarterbacks Warner started his career late. So as wealthy as Warner is, one more year would mean a lot more to him financially than most quarterbacks. Warner also had years where he made backup QB money. I think between the finances and the way he went out in New Orleans, he comes back to finish out his contract with less drama than Favre.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts - Very rarely do all number one NFL seeds make it out of the divisional round with wins. I picked the Baltimore Ravens to be that team to pull off the upset. Boy was I wrong!

There isn’t a whole lot to say about this game. The Colts looked better than they have in months. The Colts were on fire and unstoppable on both sides of the ball. It is funny to me that every year around this time that the critics always say how terrible the Colts rushing defense is coming into the playoffs, yet most of the time they do just fine. The Colts held a team to three points that just scored 33 the week before. The Colts held one of the best rushing teams in the league to 87 rushing yards total. This is not the same turnstile rushing defense that Indy has taken with them into the postseason in past years.

The Ravens just had nothing on offense. I like the Ravens a lot. However, this is a team that is old on all sides of the ball. Some of these guys may play great during the regular season, but I don’t think they can sustain that level of play in weeks 18 and 19 in January. I hate to say it but I see a couple of transition years for the Ravens before they get back here. As great as Ray Rice is and will be, he can’t do it alone. Even the great Barry Sanders couldn’t do it himself.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings - If there was a main-event going into this weekend’s games, this was it. The Dallas Cowboys were the hottest team in the NFC and looked unstoppable. The Vikings have struggled off and on in recent weeks and looked like a team that would be taken apart by Romo and the Dallas offense. I wrote in my blog last week that as great as the Cowboys looked recently, most of their wins came against teams that were nowhere near as good as the Vikings. Well, I was right about something this week.

As much as I hate blowouts, I love seeing the Cowboys get blown out. If there is anything better than seeing the Cowboys get blown out, it is hearing them whine about it like a bunch of babies. Keith Brookings and Wade Phillips look like the biggest babies in football today after complaining about the Vikings running up the score. I guess they had no problems with the Cowboys scoring a touchdown last week in the third quarter when they were up 27-7 on the Philadelphia Eagles right?

All of the talk when Brett Favre signed with the Minnesota Vikings was whether he could last a full season. Not only has he lasted, he has gotten better as the season progressed. Favre threw four touchdowns yesterday. How big is that? Brett Favre had never thrown four touchdowns in a playoff game in his entire career. Favre is also the oldest NFL quarterback to win a playoff game. Keep in mind that unlike Drew Brees or Peyton Manning, Favre never sat in his final regular season game. Like him or not, what the guy has done this season is just simply remarkable.

Lost in all of the Favre talk was the terrible job by the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys actually had some shots in the first half of the game. However, the Vikings rushed and confused Tony Romo throughout the game thus containing the offense. Romo was never able to get comfortable and looked skiddish as the game moved on. The old postseason mistake-prone Tony Romo came to Minnesota as Romo coughed up the ball several times for a total for four turnovers between fumbles and an interception. I don’t think I have ever seen a defense get into the head of a quarterback like what the Vikings did to Romo.

Like the other NFC game, the story here is more about the losers than the winners. Once again head coach Wade Phillips will find himself on the hot seat. Better coaches have gotten fired for worse in the NFL. Phillips has a team option for next year that is in limbo right now. Jerry Jones has said all season that he would wait until the season was over to evaluate the coach. It will be very interesting to see if their rout at home last week will save his job.

Tony Romo will also enter the 2010-2011 NFL season with more criticism than ever. As much as people like to say he has gotten rid of the December-January jinx, he really hasn’t. Winning one post season game in five years against the Philadelphia Eagles at home while nice, is nothing that will get him into the Hall of Fame. I don’t think that the Cowboys make any kind of change next year. However, I think anything less than an appearance in the NFC title game next season will be enough to get Jerry thinking about the following season. Now that is a lot of pressure for a quarterback!

New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers – I apologize to New York Jets fans. I called the Jets a fraudulent team a few weeks ago. In looking back, if it wasn’t for the Colts sitting their starters, the Jets would not have made the playoffs. At the same time, it doesn’t matter how you get there, it matters what you do when you get there. In retrospect, a team like that can sometimes be the most dangerous team in the playoffs.

I like Marvin Lewis a lot, but how do you not give Rex Ryan Coach of the Year? The guy has turned this team into a defensive juggernaut andshut down some of the most explosive offenses in the NFL this season. On top of that, as a rookie head coach he took a team with a rookie quarterback to the playoffs. This isn’t a team that had Bubby Brister quarterbacking last season. He took a team that had Brett Favre at quarterback further with a suspect rookie quarterback. On top of even that, he lost his x-factor Leon Washington and didn’t miss a beat. I loved his father and I have become a huge fan of Rex Ryan.

Oh to be a San Diego Chargers fan today. If the Cowboys were the hottest team in the NFC, the Chargers were the hottest team in all of football. The Chargers rolled into the playoffs winning eleven straight. Not only that, but the Chargers beat some good teams and came back from losing situations to do so. Philip Rivers looked to be playing the best ball of his career. Even the coaching brilliance of Norv Turner couldn’t stop this team…until yesterday.

It was as if I closed my eyes and woke up to see Andy Reid coaching the Chargers. The overall ranked fifth best offense in the NFL was shut down for most of the game yesterday. The Chargers had no answer for Darrelle Revis or the crazy blitzing scheme of the Jets. At one point Philip Rivers threw back to back interceptions in the game. The Jets kept it close all game long and wound up sealing the deal with a Shonn Greene 53-yard touchdown run.

I can’t talk about this game without mentioning the kicker. In one of the biggest shockers of the weekend, Mr. Automatic Nate Kaeding missed three field goals yesterday. While I wouldn’t get too crazy about missing a 57-yard attempt , he missed two easy chip shots. Obviously by looking at the final score, even just making one of those field goals would have made this a different game. However, in the end it is up to the team and the coach to pick things back up and compensate for his inability to make these shots. A team as explosive as the Chargers who were shut down to just 14 points can only put so much blame on their kicker.

There hasn’t been a team as hot for three straight weeks as the New York Jets. The book on beating the Jets is simple. Teams need to score and score big all game long. Rex Ryan loves to keep games close and wear teams down with the rushing attack. That is exactly what happened here. The Chargers had a hot second-quarter but only managed to put seven points on the board. That isn’t enough separation when you are playing the Jets. Blame the missed field goals all day long, but the running back and quarterback were just awful yesterday for the Chargers.

Like the Cowboys, Norv Turner entered the season on the hot seat. Reportedly, Turner had been assured a few weeks ago that he would get an extension. If you are a Chargers fan, you have to put this loss on the coach. Turner had no answers for Ryan’s defense and looked more confused as the game played out. Marty Schottenheimer was fired by the Chargers for losing to the Jets in almost the same scenario a few years back. Even more like Turner, Schottenheimer was first told he’d be back but wound up leaving the organization. San Diego has a very good team here, but their coach just hasn’t gotten it done.

There will also be talk about the future of LaDainian Tomlinson. L.T. is due a healthy roster bonus coming up. L.T. was held to just 24 yards on the ground yesterday. L.T. has gotten his touchdowns this season, but most of them have been short runs. L.T. is not going to be breaking off big runs anymore. I do think he will get a shot with another team, but I would be very surprised to see him back with the Chargers.

I couldn’t think of a worst scenario for the Colts. I will talk more about this game later in the week, but this is the kind of a game that can beat a team mentally. It is real simple. If the Colts wouldn’t have sat their starters, they would be playing someone else next week. Hey, if they beat the Jets than none of that matters. If they don’t, they will be second-guessing themselves for their rest of their lives. The NFL Gods will be rooting for the Jets next Sunday.

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