Early buy rate numbers are coming in for UFC 106, and they aren’t good. More shocking than the some of the UFC’s recent judging is the disappointing buy rate for UFC 106. Fingers are being pointed, blame is being shifted, and heads are spinning as skeptics are wondering whether these early numbers suggest the first chapter in the decline of the UFC.

It is amazing as to how quickly things can change in the sports and entertainment business. Just five months ago, UFC 100 set records with over 1.5 million buys and was the darling of the media. The UFC president, Dana White’s arrogance was at an all time high and he immediately started making claims about surpassing the NFL in terms of popularity in a few years. Five months later and UFC 106 is estimated to have sold a mere 300,000 pay-per-views. At this rate, Dana White would be lucky to keep pace with the UFL in a few years.

The numbers are truly shocking. For one, it was just a month ago that the UFC generated over 500,000 buys with UFC 104. The show featured a title match between Shogun Rua and Lyoto Machida that looked very unappealing on paper. Neither man had the star power that Tito Ortiz and Forrest Griffin carry to the mass MMA audience. Yet a fight with these two UFC superstars featuring a rematch of a classic fight did almost half as many guys as two non-American fighters in a one-sided match on paper? It just doesn’t make sense…or does it?

I have a few theories as to the huge decrease in numbers, and they are huge. The number one theory is something I wrote about right before the UFC 106 and it centers on the ridiculous decisions that have come down in recent main-events since UFC 104. Over 500,000 people paid $50 to watch a guy get robbed of a title and a win. Even worse, over 1 million people watched arguably the wrong guy win a fight on the judge’s scoring card again at UFC 105. Take recent fights on The Ultimate Fighter into equation, and you have a scenario where you are expecting people to pay $50 to watch fights that are coming down to bad decisions. More than exciting fights or star power, I firmly believe that credibility counts more than anything else when promoting your sport. The UFC has lost a ton of credibility recently and that is exactly why casual fans are passing on the UFC.

Another popular argument these days amongst fans and journalists is overexposure. Can too much of a good thing hurt in the long run? I definitely believe that the UFC is suffering a case of overexposure right now. Big shows are coming as little as a week apart, as UFC 105 aired on free TV the week before UFC 106. Add in the UFC Unleashed shows and The Ultimate Fighter, and there is just too much UFC going on these days to follow. The short timeline between shows is fine, when you are following great fights. The risk you take is that you run into a couple of bad decisions in a row and fans are going to be just as quick to turn it off as they were to jump on UFC 100.

Yet another argument has been the diminished star power of Tito Ortiz and Forrest Griffin. A lot of people are pointing the finger at Griffin, feeling his poor showing against Anderson Silva turned fans off to Forrest. I don’t believe that at all. Here is a guy that is on the cover of one of the most successful video games of the year. Tito Ortiz has turned into a mainstream celebrity between his appearance on The Celebrity Apprentice and his public romance with Jenna Jameson. In terms of star-power, these two guys should have easily sold 500,000 buys. Plus, this was a rematch that fans have wanted to see for years. I don’t buy the star-power argument, although it has to be humiliating for someone like Tito Ortiz who prides himself on being one of the biggest stars in MMA.

Dana White has also started a war with boxing that he is beginning to lose. White has been running his mouth since the UFC blew up a couple of years ago. White has constantly ranted about how bad boxing is, and how the UFC has taken over boxing’s place in combat sports. That may have been true in the short-term but times are changing, and boxing is fighting back.

White has purposely run UFC shows head-to-head with the two biggest boxing events of the year in recent months. To say that boxing slaughtered the UFC would be an understatement. White should be humbled and embarrassed after all of his ranting about how much better the UFC is than boxing. UFC 103 generated an estimated 400,000 buys going head-to-head with Mayweather-Marquez which sold over 1 million. UFC 106 also had a head-to-head, going head-to-head with Pacquiao-Cotto. While UFC 106 did a mere 300,000 buys, Cotto-Pacquiao sold 1.25 million buys. Ouch!

It gets worse for Dana White and the UFC. It is looking very likely that the much anticipated Manny Pacquiao vs. Floyd Mayweather match is finally going to happen. Chances are that the agreement between these two almost assuredly includes a rematch, and a third match if necessary. The first match is expected to shatter records and could sell over 2 million pay-per-views. Numbers like that will make Dana White look like a moron anytime he criticizes boxing in the future. Additionally, there are a lot of older sports journalists that hate the UFC and are openly rooting for boxing in this war. Once this super fight happens, it will dwarf anything that Dana White or the UFC promotes for a long time.

There is really only one answer that the UFC has to answer Pacquiao-Mayweather and that is Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brock Lesnar. As of today, this is the biggest fight that can be made in MMA. While Fedor has never been a great draw on pay-per-view, Brock Lesnar has and this is a match that even the most casual MMA fans talk about. The big problem here for Dana White is that he has blasted boxing for years for not giving fans the match that they want to see (Pacquiao-Mayweather), and now it is he that can’t deliver the big match to his fans.  Pacquiao-Mayweather has to put a ton of pressure on Dana White to get Fedor vs. Brock done no matter what he says. He had the chance to get it done and he didn’t. Fans don’t want to hear his excuses about the Russian mafia or promotional deals. Fans are tired of excuses and just want to see the freaking fight. The fact that Bob Arum and Golden Boy can co-promote, completely dismisses just about all of Dana White’s excuses.

The bottom line here is that the UFC is facing a steep uphill climb in 2010. Even worse, a lot of this all comes back to Dana White writing checks with his mouth that he can’t cash. Sure, the UFC has been bit by injuries but they will get all of their top stars back at some point next year. Beyond the injuries, the UFC desperately needs to fix their judging methods and that needs to happen immediately.

More than anything, Dana White needs to keep his mouth shut and start delivering matches the fans want to see. Boxing is making a comeback and with no UFC super matches on the horizon, the UFC is in danger of being the “Fad of the Decade.” Fix the judging, spread out the shows, and deliver the fights that fans want to see, and the UFC will be just fine by the end of 2010.

Commissioner Goodell, I think you can sleep easy.

Thanks to Heavy.com for the UFC 106 numbers.

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I am a Tito Ortiz fan, but this is one unintentionally funny video from the UFC 106 post-press conference. Ortiz lost a split decision earlier that night to Forrest Griffin. Ortiz begins to address the media and says he will make no excuses. Yet, Ortiz goes on for the next seven minutes to make a multitude of excuses. Quite honestly, I don’t think Tito did himself any favors with the UFC community by rolling off excuses for his loss.

Over the next seven minutes, while Tito says he won’t make excuses he claims…

- He may have come back too soon.
- He fought the fifth best fighter in the world on his first fight back.
- He was only able to spar once. (Again, explain the black eye)
- He was only able to wrestle once in training.
- He has a broken neck.
- He has a cracked vertabrae.
- He just had back surgery one year ago.
- “I didn’t know that you could get that many points off a sweep.”
- He was less than 100%.

So there you have it, no excuses but plenty of excuses from The Huntingdon Beach Bad Boy. Tito then goes on some weird rant towards the end mentioning numerous times that his career is in Dana’s hands. Dana gives a look towards the end of the press conference that is just priceless.

If there is any news here, Tito does mention that he and Dana talked about him doing the Ultimate Fighter again. I suggested the same thing when I originally wrote about Tito’s return to the UFC. There are already rumblings about a Tito vs. Forrest TUF in the near future with a third fight in the finale. I love the idea and would love to see the dynamic between the two as coaches on the show.

I will agree with Tito on one thing. I do agree that he and Forrest should have gotten Fight of the Night over Johnson-Koshcheck. Other than a 30 second flurry of punches, Johnson-Koshcheck was nothing special. While Griffin-Ortiz had a boring third round, rounds one and two were much more exciting than anything else on UFC 106.

I think Tito was a great fighter and I still think he is very good. He lost, but he wasn’t knocked out or submitted. I just don’t see him beating any elite fighters in the near or distant future.

Thanks to MMANews.com for the tip!

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Once again, former UFC light heavyweight champions Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz have gone to a split decision. After six-rounds and two fights, no fighter has yet to decisively finish the other. The UFC 106 main-event lived up to its hype and then some. This time it was Forrest Griffin that won a tight, yet controversial split decision in their rematch.

The fight lived up to all of my expectations coming out of the first match. It was almost as if Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz remained in the ring and the bell rang for Round 4 when it started. Ortiz entered the fight with a black eye from training, while Griffin looked to be fully recovered from the Anderson Silva loss. I would have no problem whatsoever with seeing Griffin-Ortiz III after seeing this fight.

The first round played out a lot like their first match in Anaheim. Forrest seemed to be hitting early on with some beautiful leg kicks. At the same time, you just had a feeling that Ortiz would time them and shoot the takedown. Like clockwork, Ortiz timed his takedown perfectly and resumed where things left off in Anaheim. Ortiz controlled Griffin on the ground and laid in the ground and pound on Forrest. Like their first right, Griffin survived the ground attack of Ortiz. Griffin peppered Ortiz a bit with leg kicks and jabs, but in my opinion Tito dominated most of the round.

Round 2 started off a little bit of the same. Unlike Round 1 and their previous fight, Forrest had much better defense against the takedowns and on the ground. Forrest used a butterfly guard to prevent Ortiz from fully mounting him and unleashing more ground and pound. Griffin seemed to grow more confident and started to dominate the striking game between the two fighters. The high drama came when Ortiz opened up Griffin badly with an elbow on the ground. Griffin remained composed and wound up sweeping Ortiz and reversing positions on the ground. The round ended with a bloody Griffin on top of Tito and some pushing and shoving.

The final round was a little bizarre to me. Ortiz came out fired up to start the round but was completely exhausted. Ortiz wound up becoming a punching bag for five minutes. Ortiz barely moved and had no reflexes to counter Griffin’s jabs and kicks. Griffin nailed a high kick at one point that rocked Ortiz. Ortiz seemed to be saving his energy for a takedown. He tried two towards the end of the round and Griffin blocked them both. It was very odd to see Ortiz go from dominating the first round, pounding Griffin in the second round, to doing absolutely nothing in the third round. The entire round saw Griffin just constantly strike at an immobile Tito Ortiz.

Both fighters acknowledged injuries following the fight. Forrest claimed to have a broken foot, while Ortiz claimed to have a neck injury which prevented him from sparring. I hate excuses but I tend to believe Ortiz. It was obvious he was gassed in Round 3. Say what you will about Tito, but his cardio conditioning is legendary. I had a feeling well before he said it that there was something physically wrong with him because I have never seen Tito that tired in a fight. Although, how did he get a black eye in training if he couldn’t spar for two weeks? The crowd did boo because quite honestly, it seems that Tito has an injury excuse every time he loses a fight.

The match once again came down to a split decision. Forrest Griffin got the win and already asked for a third match with Tito Ortiz on the post-match interview. I don’t think anyone was robbed here, but I can’t comprehend Forrest winning Round 2. Ortiz opened up a huge cut with elbows, took him down, grounded and pounded him, and yet somehow Griffin got the round. Once again a UFC main-event ends in controversy and a questionable judgment. To be fair, I don’t think it was impossible to fathom Griffin winning the round. However, all I saw was Forrest dominate one round of a three-round fight.

Tito Ortiz tied Chuck Liddell with a record 21 appearances in a UFC octagon. Physically, Ortiz looked great other than the black eye. I was also impressed with his efforts considering his age, his long layoff, and recovering from back surgery. Tito lost, but he definitely kept himself relevant on the top of the UFC cards. I think the UFC stumbled onto a gem here with a third Ortiz-Griffin match. I honestly can’t see how and why you would avoid it. Forrest Griffin won the fight at UFC 106, but I think everyone will win in the end with Ortiz-Griffin III.

Full UFC 106 results:
Forrest Griffin defeated Tito Ortiz via split decision
Josh Koscheck defeated Anthony Johnson via submissiono
Paulo Thiago defeated Jacob Volkmann via unanimous decision
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira defeated Luiz Cane via TKO
Amir Sadollah defeated Phil Baroni via unanimous decision
Ben Saunders defeated Marcus Davis via KO
Kendall Grove defeated Jake Rosholt via submission
Brian Foster defeated Brock Larson via TKO
Caol Uno fights Fabricio Camoes to a majority draw
George Sotiropoulos defeated Jason Dent via submission

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns this weekend with UFC 106. The UFC 106 presented this weekend will be much different than the original UFC 106 plans. While MMA fans lost one big match, another match change turned out to be better than the original. Tito Ortiz and Forrest Griffin meet in a long awaited rematch to highlight UFC 106.

This is a rematch that I have always wanted to see. I am actually surprised it took this long to make it happen. Ortiz announced his UFC return over the summer and indicated that he wanted to wait until he was 100% healthy to return to action. He signed to face Mark Coleman in his first match back at UFC 106. Frankly, this was nothing I was excited about and it just seemed like a set up for an easy Ortiz win. Coleman got hurt, Ortiz needed a new opponent, and there will be nothing easy about his new opponent.

The last time MMA fans saw Forrest Griffin, he was awkwardly running out of the cage after being embarrassed by Anderson Silva. He gave a new meaning to the phrase, “Run Forrest, run!” Griffin’s behavior after the match immediately cost him a lot of popularity amongst UFC fans. Griffin went into hiding and the usual media-loving jokester was nowhere to be found. The day Dana White announced the new match was the first anyone had even heard of Forrest since the Silva fight.

Griffin and Ortiz’s first match at UFC 59 has been a forgotten classic. You couldn’t have scripted a better match for a Hollywood movie. Griffin was the underdog, a fan favorite who had just won a reality show. He was truly in a position of being the Rocky of the UFC. Fans loved his courage and his brawling style, but nobody really took him seriously as a threat. Like Coleman, most speculated this match was a tune up to re-introduce Ortiz back to the UFC. To put this into perspective, Ortiz was paid $200,000 for the fight while Griffin was paid $16,000.

The fight turned into a real life Rocky vs. Apollo Creed. Ortiz talked a lot of trash before the match which turned Forrest into a bigger fan favorite. Ortiz started round one with a flurry and overwhelmed Griffin with his attack. At one point he bloodied Forrest and it looked like the fight would be over. Like Rocky, Forrest fought back and as the fight progressed, Forrest got stronger and more confident. By the third round, Griffin was the man in control blocking Tito’s takedowns and strikes. When the bell ended Griffin said he was ready to go two more rounds while Ortiz looked done. The crowd was frenzied as they expected to see the biggest upset at the time in MMA history. Unfortunately, fans and quite arguably Griffin were robbed of that upset. Ortiz won the fight on a very controversial split decision.

Oh how so much has changed since that fight in 2006. Griffin has gone on to win and lose the UFC light heavyweight championship. On top of that, Griffin has become one of the biggest superstars in the UFC. Ortiz tumbled backwards winning two easy matches against Ken Shamrock, yet hasn’t won a fight since. Ortiz wound up out of the UFC, in a public fight against Dana White, and was practically wiped out of the UFC’s history in the Top 100 show. Things changed for the Huntingdon Beach Bad Boy when he and Dana White patched things up, came to terms, and announced his return to the UFC this summer.

This will be anything but an easy fight for Tito Ortiz. I am really surprised that the UFC would risk such a huge investment in Ortiz with this fight, yet I love it as an MMA fan. I love the hype surrounding a Tito Ortiz fight but that is where it ends for Ortiz. I hate to say it, but I really think Tito’s best days as a fighter are long behind him. He hasn’t put anyone away decisively other than Ken Shamrock in a long time. I give him credit and I do think he gave Lyoto Machida a hell of a fight. Yet he hasn’t decisively beaten a big name in eight years since  he beat Evan Tanner at UFC 30. Ortiz has done a better job of creating the myth that he is a great fighter than he has done of actually being a great fighter.

I don’t know what to make of Forrest Griffin. It is really hard to take anything away from the Anderson Silva fight. I can’t say a guy is a fraud who got handled by arguably the greatest fighter to ever step into the UFC. Griffin is coming off of back-to-back losses for the first time in his MMA career. It is quite amazing since he came off consecutive wins over future Hall of Fame fighters, Rampage Jackson and Shogun Rua before his loss to Rashad Evans. I think Forrest Griffin is a very dangerous man right now. You could see the change, the anger, and the frustration in his face during the countdown special. He is probably the last guy I’d want to fight right now if I were Tito Ortiz.

As for the fight itself, I think it really comes down to how healthy Tito Ortiz is. Tito claims he is the healthiest he has been in years. That is fine in training, but it will be real interesting to see how his back holds up during a real fight. The key for Forrest is to keep his distance. If Forrest can avoid takedowns and frustrate Ortiz with leg kicks and jabs, he could set himself up nicely for an opening in the later rounds. At the same time if Ortiz could time Griffin’s strikes and shoot the takedown, he could just as easily frustrate Griffin. Griffin does not want to go 0-3 and he could make a costly mistake if he feels he is getting into trouble and deviates from his game plan.

In the end, I am more excited about this fight than anything in the last several months. These are two guys that don’t have boring fights. I’d expect more of a slugfest early than a slow, grinder on the ground. I think in the end, Forrest takes the fight via TKO or knock out. I just think Tito is too old and too rusty to hang with someone as good Forrest right now. I also think that Forrest is going into this much hungrier and meaner than he has ever been in the UFC. I look for three rounds here, with Forrest getting the win and making a lot more than $16,000 for the fight.

BetUs.com has Forrest Griffin as a -145 favorite while Bodog.com has the fight a little more even with Forrest as a -110 favorite.

Forrest Griffin UFC 59 post-fight interview on the split decision with Tito Ortiz

The entire scheduled UFC 106 fight card is…
Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin
Josh Koscheck vs. Anthony Johnson
Paulo Thiago vs. Jacob Volkmann
Luiz Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Amir Sadollah vs. Phil Baroni
Ben Saunders vs. Marcus Davis
Kendall Grove vs. Jake Rosholt
Brock Larson vs. Brian Foster
Caol Uno vs. Fabricio Camoes
George Sotiropoulos vs. Jason Dent

Thanks to MMAFanhouse.com for the tip!

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Check out this interview with former UFC light heavyweight champion Tito Ortiz up at his Big Bear training facility. Tito talks UFC 106, but his comments about UFC 104 are really the highlight of the interview. Tito has no love for Lyoto Machida as he perceives Machida’s “elusiveness” as running and tells Machida to be a man. Ortiz is never at a loss for words, and has some interesting thoughts on the UFC 104 controversy between Mauricio Rua and Lyoto Machida.

On a side note, I think Ortiz looks great considering the long layoff. He looks to be in the best shape of his career and is taking this fight very seriously. Ortiz is arguably the only man happy about Brock Lesnar pulling out of UFC 106 as he gets to reclaim his main-event status. Whether Ortiz wins or loses, he definitely has a long career after fighting as an analyst in my opinion.

Thanks to MMAConnected for the tip.

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The “Machida Era” barely survived an onslaught from Mauricio Shogun Rua at UFC 104. Rua brutalized Lyoto Machida for five-rounds with strikes and kicks, yet it wasn’t enough. The judges shockingly gave Lyoto Machida a unanimous decision win. The decision was met with over 17,000 boos, as the fans and most watching at home felt that Shogun was robbed.

This was a very intense fight that never went to the ground in five rounds. Both fighters tried several times to take the other down, yet the only time any fighter hit the ground was Machida who slipped. Shogun said in the pre-fight that he was going to be patient and react rather than rush Machida. Machida tried to follow his usual game plan of quick striking in and out, but realized early that Shogun Rua is no Rashad Evans.

Shogun brutalized Machida with body and leg kicks for the entire fight. Shogun rarely tried to hit the head and stuck the body. Machida’s ribs looked purple by the end of the fight, while his legs were colored red/purple as well. It was obvious from the second round on, that Shogun’s confidence grew and Machida was hurting. Shogun also nailed Machida with several vicious knees to his thigh and knee. Both men looked ready to go a sixth round, yet there wasn’t a doubt in the building that Shogun had won the fight.

Machida tried to follow his usual stick and move, but Shogun timed him perfectly and countered with kicks. The announcers constantly put over Shogun after most of the exchanges as the fighter who got the better of the two. I will say this about Machida. Machida started timing Shogun and would nail him with a flurry of punches as opposed to a hard kick or two from Shogun during the exchanges. I thought there were several occasions that the announcers got it wrong and Machida had won the exchange. In the end, the judges agreed with me and the announcers were left dumbfounded.

Even without winning the fight, Shogun won the night. Shogun was a -500 underdog coming into the fight. Shogun walked out of the building at UFC 104 as the people’s champion. Shogun also showed that he is no joke and is finally living up the Pride FC reputation that he had when UFC signed him. In my mind, Shogun went from high mid-carder to a drawing main-event superstar. In the end, he may have won more by not winning the UFC light heavyweight title after this kind of a fight.

As for Machida, it was definitely not his night. Even with the win, his unbeatable aura is undoubtedly over. Shogun showed that Machida is human and beatable. Shogun laid out a great blueprint for future challengers on how to beat Machida. Looking at this fight and the blue print, Forrest Griffin immediately comes to mind as a guy that can beat Lyoto Machida. Griffin is the only UFC light heavyweight (other than Anderson Silva) who has the kicking skills and background to follow this kind of a game plan against Machida. Griffin has a long way to go in rehabilitating his image, and could do so immediately with a Lyoto Machida match.

The Ultimate Fighting Championship actually wound up winning out in the end. Dana White will tell you how upset he is, but the bottom line here is that they have a mega rematch waiting to happen. Without an Anderson Silva-Lyoto Machida fight possible, there was nothing juicy on the table for Machida. The UFC could possibly have a trilogy on their hands that could rival some of the greatest trilogies in MMA history. Whether Shogun wins or loses the rematch, the UFC also has a superstar in Rua. I can’t see Rua going into any fight as a -500 underdog ever again.

<!–adsense–>On a side note, Steve Mazzagatti continues living up to his moniker as the worst official in professional sports. The guy is either the least competent official ever, or just has the worst luck in the world. Mazzagatti stopped the Ben Rothwell-Cain Velasquez fight in the second round. Rothwell was getting hammered, yet stayed on his feet and was working out of it. The irony here is that you could make a case that the fight should have been stopped a few times in Round 1, but not here. No doubt that Velasquez was dominating the fight, but you never know what can happen in MMA. All it takes is a lucky shot from a guy with the power of Rothwell to turn the fight around.

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