UFC 108 kicks off the 2010 season of UFC shows this Saturday night. Due to a number of reasons from abrupt retirements to a variety of injuries the UFC won’t be starting the year off with a marquee main-event. The main-event of UFC 108 features a match more suited for a Spike TV special as former UFC light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans takes on Thiago Silva.

Evans returns to action for the first-time since his lopsided loss to Lyoto Machida back in May. Evans hasn’t been quiet since the loss. Evans took a spot coaching on The Ultimate Fighter, which has turned him into one of the most popular fighters in the UFC. Up until the Machida loss, Evans was on a roll having never lost a fight in MMA. We will get a good look at the character and dedication of Evans after we see how he rebounds in his first fight after his first loss.

Thiago Silva’s MMA career is almost identical to that of his opponent Rashad Evans. Like Evans, Thiago Silva rolled through the competition in the UFC before suffering his first loss. Like Evans, Silva won thirteen MMA matches before suffering his first loss. Even more ironic, both fighters suffered their first losses against the current UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida. Machida knocked out both fighters to win very one-sided contests in 2009.

This is a huge opportunity for Thiago Silva. Before the Machida loss, Silva was regarded as one of the best strikers in the UFC light heavyweight division. Silva rebounded with a tremendous one-round knockout win over Keith Jardine back in August. The problem here is that while Silva loves to standup and strike, Evans is one of the best standup fighters in the UFC. Evans has the power and the quickness to act and react to Silva’s standup game. Evans is also one of the most patient fighters in all of MMA and will sit back and frustrate opponents into pressing the fight and making mistakes. This one has the makings of a long and possibly boring fight with Silva chasing Evans for three rounds, pressing the fight in the third, and opening himself up for a knockout.

To me, this one gets very interesting if it goes to the ground. Neither man is known for their submission skills. Evans and Silva each have only two submission wins a piece in their MMA careers. Evans is an accomplished collegiate wrestler, while Silva has dangerous Jiu Jitsu skills. Neither man has been challenged on the ground in the UFC. Silva’s best bet may be to take Evans to the ground and try to submit him. At the same time, he’d be opening himself up to the same fate from a very good ground wrestler. It will be very interesting to see Silva’s strategy and Evans’ reaction in the first minutes of the fight on Saturday night.

My instincts tell me to go with Rashad Evans on Saturday night. Like Silva did against Jardine, Evans needs to leave with a decisive victory on Saturday coming off of his first loss. A win also almost assuredly guarantees the winner of the Jackson-Evans match a fight against the UFC light heavyweight champion. There have also been rumors circulating that Silva is hiding an injury suffered in training camp. Injury or not, he is going to have a hard time hitting hard on one good wheel. I look for an Evans win on Saturday night and a lot of Rampage trash talking in the post-fight promo.

Eric Gargiulo’s pick: Rashad Evans

The FC 108’s Undercard by Jay Perrone

A lot of people have been riding the wham-bulance on this card because of the number of injuries that have caused for multiple substitutions, myself included. I am not among those, however, who suggest the card be made free and put on Spike because, let’s face it, the UFC can’t control injuries and there was way too much invested in the weekend even after Silva vs. Belfort was scrapped…and Lesnar became sick…and Noguiera came down with staph infection…and five other fighters when down after that…and even Steve Cantwell was dropped from the card as of this past Tuesday, so let’s cue up Queen’s The Show Must Go On and look at some of the other non-main event match ups. My humble opinions below:

Dustin Hazelett vs Paul Daley
Yes yes, this is a case of a grappler vs. a striker. It’s a cliché to say it , you all can hate me for it, but in this case, it’s true. Hazelett is looking to extend his two-fight winning streak since getting TKO’d by Josh Koscheck. Problem here for Hazelett is he was prepping for a judo/BJJ fighter in Karo Parisyan for UFC 106 until Parisyan went all “I don’t have a fighting license” on us…so Dustin has not fought in 14 months. Daley, on the other hand, has finished off his last three via KO/TKO and is NOT a bjj/judo kind of guy. As much as I’d love to see another reverse armbar out of Hazelett, Daley will be tougher to take down than Tamdan McCrory and if this stays standing, despite Hazelett claiming he’s improving his muay thai, I give it to Daley.

Jay pick: Daley via TKO, round 2

Joe Lauzon vs. Sam Stout
I am going to pull some motivation and hype out of my ass for these two (please bare with me). Stout did record “Fight of the Night” honors from UFC 97 this past April, but he is 3-7 in the UFC and has not finished anyone since 2007. The FOTN honors will help, but he needs to win this fight, given the UFC’s predilection for quick pink slips. Lauzon, on the other hand, has finished off his last two since his loss to KenFlo (another FOTN winner) back in April ‘08. With MMA being sanctioned in Massachusetts, Lauzon’s home state, he’s going to want to make a case for being on a card in his own backyard with a win. He’s coming off knee surgery, which Stout will factor into his game plan, but I think Lauzon will be able to take this the ground for the submission.

Jay pick: Lauzon via submission, round 3

Jim Miller vs. Duane Ludwig

This fight marks Ludwig’s return to the UFC after stints with several other promotions. He also holds the unofficial fastest KO in UFC history from his January ‘06 FIVE SECOND KO of Jonathan Goulet (although the time keeper’s clock kept going so Todd Duffee’s 7 second KO earlier this year is the official record). He’s a strong muay thai striker obviously looking to plant some stronger roots in the UFC this time around, but I think Miller’s ground game will nullify it. Even though it was a loss, he took Gray Maynard, a soon-to-be #1 contender to BJ Penn, the distance and since is riding a two fight winning streak.

Jay pick: Miller by decision

Junior dos Santos vs. Gilbert Yvel
Is anyone else perplexed to see Yvel in this fight? The guy is a heck of a striker, but he’s more famous for knocking out refs than anything (Ed note: Dana must be secretly PRAYING Steve Mazzagatti handles officiating duties for this one). I feel like Yvel’s signing is almost like Houston Alexander’s for Kimbo Slice. The promotion sees a lot of potential in dos Santos: he’s great young striker with a 10-1 record, coming off a win (despite it’s awkward ending) against Cro Cop, and trains out of Black House in Brazil with these two guys named Anderson Silva & Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. They want him to succeed and, if he continues, will be a title contender in 2011. Yvel hits hard, but I give the striking edge to dos Santos, whether it be on his feet or on the ground.

Jay pick: dos Santos via TKO, Round 1

The complete UFC 108 card as scheduled is…
Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva
Dustin Hazelett vs. Paul Daley
Joe Lauzon vs. Sam Stout
Jim Miller vs. Duane Ludwig
Junior dos Santos vs. Gilbert Yvel
Martin Kampmann vs. Jacob Volkmann
Cole Miller vs. Dan Lauzon
Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Steve Cantwell
Mark Munoz vs. Ryan Jensen
Mike Pyle vs. Jake Ellenberger
Rafaello Oliveira vs. John Gunderson

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The UFC is walking a fine line right now. Several recent UFC fights have gone the distance. Unfortunately for the UFC and its fans, the judges have picked some questionable winners. In the last few weeks three big UFC fights were marred by bad decisions. Could the one of the biggest sports in the world be in danger of losing its fanbase?

One of the biggest reasons in the decline in boxing over the last two decades is integrity. Fans started to question the integrity of the sport after some very questionable decisions. Whether a boxing or UFC promoter tells you one way or the other, there is always a winner that is better for business. Fans can get past one or two bad decisions, but any more and fans will start raising eyebrows and spending their money and their time elsewhere.

I was not as outraged as most when it came to the Lyoto Machida-Shogun Rua decision. Personally, I think people were swayed a bit too much by Joe Rogan who declared Rua the winner of every exchange. The real alarms started ringing for me after the fight when one of the judges explained his decision. I have watched the UFC since UFC 1 and after listening to this judge, I understand the criteria for judging less than I did before the fight. The problem here isn’t the judging, but it is the criteria that these judges are using to determine the winners.

UFC judge Cecil People said the following after the Rua-Machida fight. “Mauricio Rua was being aggressive but it wasn’t effective aggressiveness which is what we as the judges look for when scoring a fight. The way I saw it, Lyoto was landing the more cleaner and damaging strikes throughout the fight – if you take a look at the judging criteria clean strikes are valued more-so than the quantity of strikes landed. Although Rua threw a lot of low kicks they were not as damaging as Lyotos diverse attack in the earlier rounds which is why I scored the first three rounds for Machida. You have to keep in mind we always the favour the fighter who is trying to finish the fight, and leg kicks certainly don’t do that.” – Cagepotato.com.

That is just insane! If leg kicks aren’t considered “effective strikes,” than what exactly is the definition of an effective strike in the mind of a UFC judge? All you need to do is look at the bruising of a fighter’s leg that has been on the receiving end of leg kicks to see how effective the strikes are. Heck, Forrest Griffin destroyed Rampage Jackson with nothing but leg kicks and got a decision win. People’s explanation of his scoring makes absolutely no sense and that is not good for fans who pay $50 to watch a UFC event.

This ugly story reared its ugly head again last week on The Ultimate Fighter. Roy Nelson won a two-round decision to advance over Justin Wren. While I do think that Roy Nelson won the second-round, I can’t begin to fathom how he won the first one. Wren peppered Nelson with shots, did more damage, and pushed the fight in the first round. If there was any fight that needed a third round on this show it was this one. Roy Nelson won and UFC fans are really starting to hate him. The bad news here is that millions of fans tuned in to see this and may likely not tune in for the rest of the season.

The decision in the Saturday night between Randy Couture and Brandon Vera may be the worst decision yet. An objective MMA observer could make a case for both Lyoto Machida and Roy Nelson in their fights. However, I can’t comprehend how even the biggest Randy Couture fan could defend that decision. Randy Couture winning the fight is a joke in itself, but getting a unanimous decision win is just insanity! Not only was Brandon Vera robbed, but the fight probably should have been stopped in the second round. I certainly don’t believe that the UFC is fixed, but Couture’s win in England will certainly boost the argument of the MMA conspiracy theorists.

So in the last month alone, the UFC has had their last three high-profile matches end on questionable judging. There is only so much good will that the UFC will have until their fans start to feel like they are getting ripped off. Thanks to boxing, MMA will always have their skeptics. I have heard more and more from people who think they “told me so” and point to these decisions as to why they think the UFC is worked. I don’t believe it is worked, but I can see where a skeptic would start to get that idea. What happens when your loyal fan base gets tired of this? They look elsewhere for entertainment, just like they did with boxing over the last 20-years.

I don’t know what you do if you are the UFC? Hell, at this point you would be better off picking a UFC or MMA fan to judge fights. Do you come up with an entirely different point system? I really don’t know what you can do without the interpretation that they are trying to influence their fights. Dana White loves to continually kick boxing and question their credibility in interviews. Dana White is on the verge of having the same problem if he doesn’t come up with some kind of a solution. All it will take is for one or two more UFC fights to end with a bad decision for the bottom to fall out. It doesn’t matter whether it is Anderson Silva vs. Lyoto Machida or Brock vs. Fedor, if the fans question the integrity of the shows, they will stop paying to see them. It is really that simple.

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UFC 105 takes place this Saturday in England. The big event will be televised for free on Spike TV on Saturday night. UFC Hall of Fame fighter, Randy Couture headlines the free event against Brandon Vera in a UFC light heavyweight bout. This is a must-win fight for both fighters, with the winner moving an inch closer to challenging Lyoto Machida.

The backstory to this fight is probably more interesting than the fight itself. In 2006, Vera was seen as the hot commodity in UFC’s struggling heavyweight division. Vera defeated Frank Mir at UFC 65 and the plan was in motion to pit Vera against Tim Sylvia for the UFC heavyweight title. Many insiders and fans thought that Vera would win and give the division new life. However, Vera was at the end of a contract and UFC would not give him a title shot without a new deal. The two sides couldn’t come to an agreement and the fight never happened. Enter Randy Couture.

After being knocked out by Chuck Liddell at UFC 57, Couture announced his retirement. Due to the Vera impasse, Dana White was desperate for a challenger for Tim Sylvia and called Randy Couture. Couture accepted, came out of retirement, and defeated Sylvia as a huge underdog to win the UFC heavyweight title and revitalize his career. It is entirely possible that if not for Brandon Vera and his contract impasse with the UFC, Randy Couture may have stayed retired. The bottom line is whether Couture would have came back or not, he wouldn’t have come back in the heavyweight division and defeat the champion in one of the UFC’s all-time greatest moments.

Vera finally returned to the UFC, but has yet to taste the success he had before the layoff. Like Couture, Vera fights as both a heavyweight and lightweight. Since his return to the UFC, Vera has gone a disappointing 3-3. However, longtime UFC fans still have memories of the old Brandon Vera and thus UFC has been able to capitalize on his previous success. Vera has won his last two fights, ironically winning his last fight on the Couture-Nogueira undercard in August. I think it is fair to say that in Vera’s UFC career, this is by far the biggest fight he has ever had. Brandon Vera desperately needs a win here to take the next step in his career. A loss to Couture could put Vera so far back that he may wind up leaving the UFC.

Randy Couture is in a similar situation in that he desperately needs a win. Couture lost his last fight to Nogueira, yet received a ton of praise for not quitting. Personally, I think people watched that fight with rose colored glasses. I think Nogueira dominated the majority of the fight and owned Couture on the ground. Couture had some great moments on his feet, but Nogueira didn’t look like he was in any real danger in the fight. As a matter of a fact, Couture looked in tremendous shape yet seemed slow at times. At 46 years of age, anyone is going to slow down and Couture is definitely no exception to the rule.

Couture has lost his last two fights. Couture lost via TKO to Brock Lesnar and via decision to Nogueira. I will say this about Randy Couture. For one thing, he definitely gave Brock Lesnar a far tougher fight than anyone expected. Two, I think it shows a lot about Randy to take a fight three months after his last fight which was a grueling three-rounder. Brock Lesnar, Frank Mir, Georges St. Pierre, and most likely Anderson Silva have all taken much longer between fights. For Couture to immediately jump back into training without much of a break is very impressive to say the least.

As for the fight, I think this is a fight set up for Randy to win. Randy should easily win on the ground. Randy has to worry about clinches and kicks if the fighters stay on their feet. One of Vera’s biggest weaknesses is his inability to finish guys. Vera hesitates a lot and unless he pounces on Couture like Brock did in the second round, he is going to be in for a long night. Couture can be knocked out, but he is extremely resilient if given a chance to recuperate. Vera can match Randy’s boxing game and he has a 3-inch reach advantage, so it is really imperative that Couture takes him to the mat. Couture also doesn’t seem quick enough to get into a slugfest these days. Randy’s best bet is grounding and pounding a long, yet boring fight.

As of this writing, Randy Couture is a -120 favorite on BetUs.com and -130 on Bodog.com. Brandon Vera is getting even odds on both books. This really surprises me considering the age factor and Couture’s last two fights. I never expected Vera to be an underdog and maybe he won’t be by fight time. I think UFC made this match for Couture to win. A Couture win opens up Couture-Griffin, Couture-Ortiz II, Couture-Silva, Couture-Belfort, Couture-Franklin, and maybe even Couture-Liddell at some point. I am going with Randy Couture for the win via decision.

The entire scheduled UFC 105 fight card is…
Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera
Michael Bisping vs. Denis Kang
Mike Swick vs. Dan Hardy
James Wilks vs. Matt Brown
Ross Pearson vs. Aaron Riley
Terry Etim vs. Shannon Gugerty
Paul Taylor vs. John Hathaway
Nick Osipczak vs. Matthew Riddle
Alexander Gustafsson vs. Jared Hamman
Andre Winner vs. Roli Delgado

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Check out this interview with former UFC light heavyweight champion Tito Ortiz up at his Big Bear training facility. Tito talks UFC 106, but his comments about UFC 104 are really the highlight of the interview. Tito has no love for Lyoto Machida as he perceives Machida’s “elusiveness” as running and tells Machida to be a man. Ortiz is never at a loss for words, and has some interesting thoughts on the UFC 104 controversy between Mauricio Rua and Lyoto Machida.

On a side note, I think Ortiz looks great considering the long layoff. He looks to be in the best shape of his career and is taking this fight very seriously. Ortiz is arguably the only man happy about Brock Lesnar pulling out of UFC 106 as he gets to reclaim his main-event status. Whether Ortiz wins or loses, he definitely has a long career after fighting as an analyst in my opinion.

Thanks to MMAConnected for the tip.

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The “Machida Era” barely survived an onslaught from Mauricio Shogun Rua at UFC 104. Rua brutalized Lyoto Machida for five-rounds with strikes and kicks, yet it wasn’t enough. The judges shockingly gave Lyoto Machida a unanimous decision win. The decision was met with over 17,000 boos, as the fans and most watching at home felt that Shogun was robbed.

This was a very intense fight that never went to the ground in five rounds. Both fighters tried several times to take the other down, yet the only time any fighter hit the ground was Machida who slipped. Shogun said in the pre-fight that he was going to be patient and react rather than rush Machida. Machida tried to follow his usual game plan of quick striking in and out, but realized early that Shogun Rua is no Rashad Evans.

Shogun brutalized Machida with body and leg kicks for the entire fight. Shogun rarely tried to hit the head and stuck the body. Machida’s ribs looked purple by the end of the fight, while his legs were colored red/purple as well. It was obvious from the second round on, that Shogun’s confidence grew and Machida was hurting. Shogun also nailed Machida with several vicious knees to his thigh and knee. Both men looked ready to go a sixth round, yet there wasn’t a doubt in the building that Shogun had won the fight.

Machida tried to follow his usual stick and move, but Shogun timed him perfectly and countered with kicks. The announcers constantly put over Shogun after most of the exchanges as the fighter who got the better of the two. I will say this about Machida. Machida started timing Shogun and would nail him with a flurry of punches as opposed to a hard kick or two from Shogun during the exchanges. I thought there were several occasions that the announcers got it wrong and Machida had won the exchange. In the end, the judges agreed with me and the announcers were left dumbfounded.

Even without winning the fight, Shogun won the night. Shogun was a -500 underdog coming into the fight. Shogun walked out of the building at UFC 104 as the people’s champion. Shogun also showed that he is no joke and is finally living up the Pride FC reputation that he had when UFC signed him. In my mind, Shogun went from high mid-carder to a drawing main-event superstar. In the end, he may have won more by not winning the UFC light heavyweight title after this kind of a fight.

As for Machida, it was definitely not his night. Even with the win, his unbeatable aura is undoubtedly over. Shogun showed that Machida is human and beatable. Shogun laid out a great blueprint for future challengers on how to beat Machida. Looking at this fight and the blue print, Forrest Griffin immediately comes to mind as a guy that can beat Lyoto Machida. Griffin is the only UFC light heavyweight (other than Anderson Silva) who has the kicking skills and background to follow this kind of a game plan against Machida. Griffin has a long way to go in rehabilitating his image, and could do so immediately with a Lyoto Machida match.

The Ultimate Fighting Championship actually wound up winning out in the end. Dana White will tell you how upset he is, but the bottom line here is that they have a mega rematch waiting to happen. Without an Anderson Silva-Lyoto Machida fight possible, there was nothing juicy on the table for Machida. The UFC could possibly have a trilogy on their hands that could rival some of the greatest trilogies in MMA history. Whether Shogun wins or loses the rematch, the UFC also has a superstar in Rua. I can’t see Rua going into any fight as a -500 underdog ever again.

<!–adsense–>On a side note, Steve Mazzagatti continues living up to his moniker as the worst official in professional sports. The guy is either the least competent official ever, or just has the worst luck in the world. Mazzagatti stopped the Ben Rothwell-Cain Velasquez fight in the second round. Rothwell was getting hammered, yet stayed on his feet and was working out of it. The irony here is that you could make a case that the fight should have been stopped a few times in Round 1, but not here. No doubt that Velasquez was dominating the fight, but you never know what can happen in MMA. All it takes is a lucky shot from a guy with the power of Rothwell to turn the fight around.

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UFC 104 ushers in the first title defense of the “Machida Era” of UFC. Lyoto Machida will put his UFC light heavyweight title on the line against fellow Brazilian fighter Mauricio Shogun Rua. This will be the first meeting of two of the most dominant Brazilian light heavyweights of this generation.

The match is intriguing, yet not nearly as sexy as a Rampage Jackson or Forrest Griffin vs. Lyoto Machida would be. Machida (15-0) is still just as big a mystery to casual MMA fans as he is to his opponents. Rua (18-3) has had mixed success in UFC as fans are still waiting to see the explosive Shogun from Pride FC. Saturday’s match has the potential to turn one of these mysterious stars into a mainstream MMA sensation.

Personally, this is one of those matches that I really don’t understand. The match reminds me a lot of the circumstances of Brock Lesnar’s first UFC title match. Lesnar was 2-1 in UFC, like Shogun Rua. Lesnar got the title shot after beating an aging fighter in Randy Couture (Shogun beat Chuck Liddell in his last fight). Finally, most MMA fans didn’t feel that either fighter was truly deserving of their title opportunities. In this case, I am still far from sold on Rua.

At one time, Shogun Rua was one of the most feared men in MMA. Rua went on a tear in Pride FC in 2004-05 beating guys like Rampage Jackson, Alistair Overeem, and Antônio Rogério Nogueira. In Rua’s last 13 fights before joining UFC, he went 12-1 with only two fights going past the first round. Rua’s UFC career has been a big disappointment. Rua has looked tentative and hasn’t shown any of the explosiveness that made him a household MMA star.

I think the biggest reason is the adjustment to the cage and the rules of the UFC. Stomps and soccer kicks are a huge part of Shogun’s game, yet he is not allowed to use either in the UFC. MMAFanhouse.com did a great job recently breaking this down and indicating how important these strikes were to Rua’s success in Pride FC. The website points out that 5 of Rua’s 18 wins came on TKOs from soccer kicks. Rua also used these kicks to wear down opponents like Overeem for eventual wins. In 2005, he won the Pride Middleweight Grand Prix. Putting Rua into the UFC and not allowing him to use these weapons would be like putting Mike Tyson in an MMA fight and telling him that he couldn’t punch.

It has now been over two years since Rua has come over to the UFC. It is now or never for Rua to work past this and come up with a game plan that he can use under the UFC rule book. He finally showed his explosiveness in the Chuck Liddell fight, at the same time Machida is younger, faster, and has better reflexes than Liddell. Rua has been training in BJJ since he was six, so he can hang with Machida on the ground. Rua’s best bet is to turn this into a slugfest and catch Machida with a punch or a kick for the win.

For Machida, the guy just looks simply unbeatable. Rashad Evans looked like a rookie when he fought Machida. Machida is just so fast and quick, that it seems like your only chance is to time a strike perfectly to beat him. After not winning a fight since 2003 with his strikes, Machida has won his last two fights via knockout. Prior to that, Machida won decisions in 6 of 8 fights. The thing with Machida is he either finishes early or he goes the distance. The closest fighter he has fought to Shogun’s skill set was Thiago Silva at UFC 94 and be knocked him out in exciting fashion at the 4:59 mark of Round 1.

I look at this fight as the BJJ and ground game and call it even. Neither man is a deadly submission artist, as the two of them only have three submission wins between them. On their feet, you would have to give this one also to Machida. Knocking out Mark Coleman and Chuck Liddell are one thing, connecting with Machida is another. Machida easily wins the conditioning battle between these two, yet neither fighter has ever gone five rounds. In the end I just think Shogun Rua is way overmatched and in his over his head with this one. I predict a Machida win, third round, and we await Machida vs. Evans II.

BetUs.com has Lyoto Machida at a -450 favorite while BoDog.com has Machida at -500.

The entire scheduled UFC 103 fight card is…
Lyoto Machida (c) vs. Mauricio Rua
Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell
Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer
Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher
Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer
Antoni Hardonk vs. Patrick Barry
Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen
Jorge Rivera vs. Rob Kimmons
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Razak Al-Hassan
Stefan Struve vs. Chase Gormley

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